OPEC+ to ramp up oil output in November

Reuters

People walk past an installation depicting barrel of oil with OPEC logo during COP29 last year.

OPEC+ has announced a modest increase in oil production, raising output by 137,000 barrels per day (bpd) from November, mirroring the incremental rise seen in October. The decision comes amid lingering concerns over a potential global supply glut.

The group, which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Russia, and several smaller producers, has increased its oil output targets by more than 2.7 million bpd so far this year, equivalent to roughly 2.5% of global demand.

Brent crude prices fell below $65 per barrel on Friday, reflecting market expectations of a supply surplus in the fourth quarter and into 2026, driven by slowing demand and rising U.S. shale production. Prices remain below this year’s peak of $82 per barrel but above the $60 seen in May.

Ahead of the meeting, sources indicated differing positions within OPEC+. Russia favoured a modest increase, citing sanctions that limit its production capacity and a desire to avoid pressuring prices. Saudi Arabia, with spare capacity, reportedly pushed for a higher increase—between 274,000 and 548,000 bpd—to regain market share more quickly.

OPEC+ described the global economic outlook as steady, with market fundamentals healthy due to low oil inventories. Analysts noted the careful balancing act. Scott Shelton of TP ICAP Group said oil prices could rise by up to $1 per barrel following the announcement. Jorge Leon of Rystad Energy remarked that the group is “walking a tightrope between maintaining stability and clawing back market share in a surplus environment.”

OPEC+ had imposed cumulative output cuts of 5.85 million bpd earlier this year, consisting of voluntary reductions of 2.2 million bpd, 1.65 million bpd by eight members, and an additional 2 million bpd by the entire group. The eight producers plan to fully unwind the first layer of cuts (2.2 million bpd) by the end of September and started removing the second layer (1.65 million bpd) with the October increase.

The eight-member group is scheduled to meet again on 2 November to review production levels.

Source: Reuters



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